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PAPER 001 MAY 2026 · DRAFT

Regime detection in illiquid frontier markets.

We propose a Hidden Markov Model approach to detect regime shifts in markets where standard volatility-clustering signals are unreliable due to thin trading. Tested across NGX, NSE, and BVMW.

  • Quant
  • Time series

We propose a Hidden Markov Model approach to detect regime shifts in markets where standard volatility-clustering signals are unreliable due to thin trading. Tested across NGX, NSE, and BVMW.

The full paper is in draft. Reach out at info@theelixirslab.com if you’d like an early read.